Sanctions are the cue strike, hybrid wars are the carom, and de-dollarization is the unexpected ricochet. We examine why modern conflicts resemble a billiard game more than classical warfare.
Modern geopolitics resembles a game of billiards: states, like balls on the cloth, collide, repel, and change trajectories under the strikes of key players. Every move has consequences, and the strength and angle of the strike determine who comes out on top.
In billiards, everything starts with the cue strike — in world politics, this role is played by military power, economic sanctions, and diplomatic pressure. The U.S., China, and Russia are the main «players» setting the direction for the other «balls.»
Historically, the cue (staff) has been associated with power and the ability to direct events. In geopolitics, this image manifests in three forms of influence: hard power, soft power, and smart power.
Today, the «cues» include: nuclear arsenals, economic leverage, information technologies, and military alliances. Examples of use: Russia employs energy resources, the U.S. — the financial system, China — investment projects.
For small states, the «cue» is not a weapon of aggression but a tool of protection and maneuver: Finland and Sweden join NATO, Turkey balances between blocs, India maintains neutrality.
In billiards, a carom is a rebound strike. In geopolitics similarly: great powers act through intermediaries. The U.S. supports Ukraine against Russia, China invests in Africa avoiding confrontation with the West.
For decades, the West set the rules (liberal order), but now China and Russia are challenging this monopoly through BRICS, EAEU, new currency systems.
Even precise strikes create unexpected ricochets: sanctions temporarily strengthened the ruble, support for Ukraine accelerated de-dollarization.
Who will win the game? China bets on economy, U.S. on technology, Russia on energy and military. The world is a billiard table without a final strike.
In geopolitics as in billiards: sometimes the strongest strike is the one you don’t make yourself.
Adel Moussa
All Russia
